Gameweek 4 Odds Watch: Hull's Clean Sheets and the Fixture the Market Cannot Split

Three rounds in, the Premier League table has produced a peculiar picture: two perfect teams, a side sitting third without conceding, and three clubs still waiting for their first goal. For anyone tracking how Gameweek 4's prices take shape before Friday's opener at Brentford, the table is the essential starting point.

The obvious bankers hide the sharper puzzles

According to the Premier League table, Manchester City host Sunderland with three wins from three, seven goals scored and two conceded; their visitors sit 12th with four points. On paper it is the round's most lopsided fixture. The better conundrum lies on the south coast, where Brighton & Hove Albion — who share the division's best attacking return of eight goals with Chelsea — face an Arsenal side beaten only once at the back. That is precisely where markets tend to disagree.

Chelsea's contradiction, Brentford's case

Friday's opener pairs fifth against fourth. Chelsea have scored as many as anyone in the division but conceded seven — only Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace have let in more, according to the Premier League table — while unbeaten Brentford have shipped two. A Chelsea clean-sheet price looks, on this evidence, like a bold investment.

Hull are the market's headache

Newcastle United, unbeaten themselves, welcome a Hull City side sitting third with seven points and, uniquely in the division, without a goal conceded. Three matches is a small sample, but there is little precedent for pricing a team with that defensive record so high up the table.

The round's true coin-toss

Tottenham Hotspur against Aston Villa is the fixture the numbers cannot separate. Both arrive at Saturday's early kick-off with identical records — no wins, one point, no goals, five conceded and matching D-L-L form lines, according to the Premier League table. They are two of the division's three goalless sides; the third, Coventry City, travel to Nottingham Forest, where both teams are still searching for a first win.

Pressure points elsewhere

Fulham, pointless despite scoring four, host a Manchester United side with four points from an uneven start, while unbeaten Liverpool, with two draws from three, visit a Bournemouth team also without a victory. Everton against Ipswich Town and Leeds United against Crystal Palace look, on the table's evidence, the round's calmer affairs.

As prices settle across the week, FanTribe's Data Desk will track the movement against our readers' predictions. Make your calls before Friday's kick-off — on this table, the market has every reason to be nervous.