Gameweek 4 odds: where the fans and the bookmakers part company

Gameweek 4 is producing some of the sharpest fan-versus-market splits of the season so far, and FanTribe's prediction data points to north London for the widest of them.

The biggest disagreement: Spurs v Everton

FanTribe's data identifies Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton as the widest fan-versus-market gap of Gameweek 4, at 75. Every prediction logged so far backs an Everton win, yet the bookmakers make Spurs favourites at 1.98 — a 48 per cent bookmaker-derived probability. The fans' confidence has some support in the numbers: according to the Premier League table, unbeaten Everton sit eighth with five points, while Spurs are 18th with one and still searching for a first win. An Everton away win is worth 74 FanTribe points, with Spurs at 40 and the draw at 70.

Old Trafford: fans back United, market backs City

In the Manchester derby, FanTribe predictors are unanimous for a United win, but the bookmakers side with City at 2.11 — a 44 per cent bookmaker-derived probability. The table explains the market's lean: City top the early standings on nine points, with United 11th on four. The points on offer reflect the tension — 61 for a United win, 42 for City and 76 for the draw.

A draw call at Selhurst Park

The boldest fan pick may be Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town, where all predictions to date point to a draw — worth 74 FanTribe points against a market that makes Palace favourites at 1.87, a 50 per cent bookmaker-derived probability. An Ipswich win would pay 80; Palace's just 37.

The other splits

• Leeds United vs Newcastle United: fans back Newcastle; the bookmakers prefer Leeds at 2.43 (39 per cent). A Newcastle win pays 56 points.
• AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford: fans fancy Brentford; the market has Bournemouth at 2.53 (37 per cent). Brentford would bank 53.

The week's biggest points haul

Chelsea's home fixture against Hull City carries the shortest price of the gameweek — 1.25, a 76 per cent bookmaker-derived probability — yet the table shows Hull third, unbeaten and a place above Chelsea. A Hull win at Stamford Bridge would be worth 244 FanTribe points, the largest haul on offer anywhere in Gameweek 4. The next biggest is a Sunderland home win over Arsenal at 136 points, with the bookmakers pricing Arsenal at 1.5 (63 per cent).

Common ground exists: fans and the market both favour Liverpool (1.44, 66 per cent) and Arsenal, though FanTribe's data still shows gaps of 34 and 37 on those picks — and Aston Villa backers are far more convinced than the bookmakers' 46 per cent implied probability would suggest.