Gameweek 5 odds: FanTribe fans back Hull where the bookmakers back Newcastle

Gameweek 5 opens at the Gtech Community Stadium on Friday evening, and with all ten fixtures priced, the headline act is the one match where FanTribe's predictors and the market part company.

The split at St James' Park

Bookmaker odds make Newcastle United strong favourites at 1.6 against Hull City — a 59 per cent bookmaker-derived probability — with the draw at 4.33 and Hull at 5.1 (19 per cent). FanTribe's prediction data sees it differently: 100 per cent of predictions logged so far on this fixture back a Hull win, the only game of the round where the fan favourite and the market favourite do not match. The disagreement gap of 81 is the largest in Gameweek 5.

The Premier League table gives the contrarians something to lean on: Hull sit fourth, unbeaten on eight points, while Newcastle are twelfth with five. FanTribe's points on offer mirror the divide — a Newcastle win returns 32 points, the draw 87 and a Hull win 102.

The biggest prize on the board

Manchester City are the week's strongest favourites at 1.3 against Sunderland — 73 per cent in bookmaker-derived terms — with the draw at 5.5 and Sunderland at 9.5. A Sunderland win carries 190 FanTribe points, the largest single haul on offer in Gameweek 5, with the draw worth 110. City sit second with four wins from four; Sunderland are fourteenth on four points. FanTribe predictors side with the market here.

The tightest book of the round

Friday's opener between Brentford and Chelsea features the narrowest split on the board: Chelsea at 2.41 (40 per cent), Brentford at 2.7 (35 per cent) and the draw at 3.75 (25 per cent). FanTribe users back Chelsea along with the market, with 48 points on an away win, 54 on the hosts and 75 on the draw.

Where everyone lines up together

Arsenal carry the shortest away price of the round at 1.7 (56 per cent) for the trip to Brighton, yet a Brighton win offers 96 FanTribe points — the biggest haul for any home side this week. Arsenal lead the table with four wins from four; Brighton sit fifth, and no side has scored more than their 13 goals according to the Premier League table. FanTribe's early predictions are unanimous for Arsenal.

The market's other favourites, per bookmaker odds, with FanTribe's prediction data in agreement on each:

• Tottenham Hotspur (2.0) v Aston Villa
• Everton (1.75) v Ipswich Town
• Nottingham Forest (1.61) v Coventry City
• Leeds United (1.79) v Crystal Palace
• Liverpool (2.16) at AFC Bournemouth
• Manchester United (2.02) at Fulham

All odds via API-Football, as of Friday morning. Implied probabilities are bookmaker-derived, not certainties.