Igor Jesus strikes late as Nottingham Forest stun Aston Villa at Villa Park

Aston Villa's wait for a first win of the season goes on after Nottingham Forest left Villa Park with all three points, Igor Jesus striking two minutes from time to decide a 2-1 contest in Gameweek 4 of the 2026-27 Premier League season.

The breakthrough came a minute after half-time, when Liam Delap put Forest in front. Villa appeared to have clawed their way back into the match when Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha equalised on 74 minutes, but Igor Jesus had the final word in the 88th minute to snatch victory from a game that had seemed destined to end level.

The key moments

• 46' — Liam Delap puts Nottingham Forest in front
• 74' — Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha equalises for Aston Villa
• 88' — Igor Jesus wins it for Nottingham Forest

An upset by the market's measure

FanTribe's market data listed Aston Villa as favourites at 2.25 — a bookmaker-derived implied probability of 43% — with the draw at 3.4 (28%) and a Forest win at 3.3 (29%). Against those numbers, Forest's victory is flagged as an upset, and FanTribe's gameweek data shows it was one of six to occur across Gameweek 4.

The pricing also shaped FanTribe's points on offer: a correctly tipped away win carried 66 points, against 45 for a Villa victory and 68 for the draw.

Fans and bookmakers agreed — and both were wrong

FanTribe's prediction data shows the community sided squarely with the market. The prediction split for this fixture stood at 100% for a Villa win, with no takers for Forest or the draw — agreement that counted for nothing once Igor Jesus found the net, as the community's count of correct predictions for the match finished at zero.

What it means for the table

According to the Premier League table, the defeat leaves Villa 19th with one point from four matches, built on a solitary goal scored — Franco da Rocha's equaliser stands as their only league goal of the campaign so far — and seven conceded. Forest climb to 11th with five points from one win, two draws and a single defeat.

FanTribe's head-to-head record shows Villa had held the upper hand in the two most recent meetings between the sides, winning 3-1 at Villa Park and drawing 1-1 at the City Ground for a four-point haul. That run is over, and so is Forest's wait for a first win of the season.

Few saw it coming — the bookmakers' numbers did not, and neither did the FanTribe community.