Manchester City Favourites for Old Trafford Derby, but FanTribe Backs United

The bookmakers have delivered their verdict on Sunday's Manchester derby, and it favours the visitors. Manchester City are priced at 2.11 to win at Old Trafford in Gameweek 4 — a bookmaker-derived probability of 44% — with Manchester United at 3.05 (31% implied) and the draw at 3.78 (25% implied).

Even so, the market leaves room for drama. According to the bookmaker odds, 56% of the implied likelihood sits with a United win or a draw — and that is exactly where FanTribe's early predictions have gone.

Form: City perfect, United mixed

According to the Premier League table, ten places and five points separate the clubs after three matches. City lead the division with nine points from a possible nine, their form guide reading WWW — three straight wins, seven goals scored and only two conceded — and they are one of two sides on maximum points, alongside second-placed Arsenal.

United sit 11th with four points from a win, a draw and a defeat. They have matched City's return of seven goals scored — only Chelsea and Brighton, with eight apiece, have managed more, according to the table — but six conceded at the other end has checked their progress.

Head-to-head: honours even

FanTribe's head-to-head record lists two meetings between the sides, with honours even at one win apiece and no draw in either. United won 2-0 in the Old Trafford edition; City ran out 3-0 victors on their own ground. Across the pair of fixtures, United scored twice and conceded three, an aggregate edged 3-2 by City.

Fans against the market

FanTribe's prediction data for this fixture provides the derby's most striking subplot. Every prediction logged so far — a small early sample, with Gameweek 4 only getting under way — backs a United win: 100% for the hosts, none for the draw or a City victory.

Set against a market that makes City favourites, that split opens a 69-point disagreement gap between FanTribe users and the bookmakers. Only two Gameweek 4 fixtures show a wider fan-versus-market divide: Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton (75) and Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town (74).

The FanTribe points on offer reward the boldest calls:

• Manchester United win — 61 points
• Draw — 76 points
• Manchester City win — 42 points

The richest return is attached to the draw, the outcome the bookmakers rate least likely of the three.

Sunday at Old Trafford

Victory would take City to 12 points and extend their winning run to four matches. A United win would lift the hosts to seven points and within two of their neighbours, according to the Premier League table.

Old Trafford stages the derby on Sunday, 13 September, with kick-off at 16:30 BST. The market verdict points to City's perfect start continuing. FanTribe's early predictions — unanimously, so far — point the other way.