Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth: match preview, form and odds

Newcastle United host AFC Bournemouth at Saturday's lunchtime kick-off on 5 September, with two rounds of the new Premier League season played, the hosts unbeaten in third and the visitors still chasing a first win.

The state of play

The picture on Tyneside is encouraging. Newcastle sit third with four points from a win and a draw, four goals scored and two conceded. Only Manchester City and Hull City, both on maximum points from their opening two fixtures, stand above them.

Bournemouth's start has been scratchier. The Cherries are 13th with a single point from a draw and a defeat, two scored and three against. According to the Premier League table, only Nottingham Forest share that one-point return, and ten sides are still waiting for a first win. It is early, but a gap has opened.

Form guide

• Newcastle United (W, D): Unbeaten, four points from six, goal difference +2. Their four goals are bettered only by Manchester City's six.
• AFC Bournemouth (D, L): Winless after two rounds, goal difference -1, with three conceded at the back and two scored at the other end.

Newcastle's opening fortnight has combined results with output. Bournemouth's has posed questions at both ends — though two matches is far too small a sample for firm conclusions about either side.

What the odds say

The early match odds make Newcastle favourites at 2.24, implying roughly a 45 per cent chance of a home win. Bournemouth are 3.30 — around 30 per cent — while the draw is the outsider at 3.85, about 26 per cent.

The away win being priced shorter than the stalemate is the most telling line on the board: the market gives Bournemouth genuine credit despite their winless start. Even so, 2.24 makes Newcastle narrow rather than commanding favourites. This is no home banker on the numbers.

Where the match could turn

Newcastle's four goals in two outings point to a side creating chances, while Bournemouth's three conceded suggest a defence that can be opened. If the hosts' early attacking rhythm carries into Saturday, the visitors' winless run could come under real pressure.

Bournemouth's counter-argument is their price. A 3.30 away quote against a team ten places above them reflects a market that has not written them off, and they have scored twice in their opening two matches.

The Data Desk view

The table and the market point the same way — a lean, rather than a landslide, towards Newcastle. For the visitors, a first win would transform a modest start; for the hosts, three points would keep pace with the early pacesetters. Our read, based on the form and the odds: Newcastle to edge it, with Bournemouth's price a warning against expecting a procession.