Newcastle vs Hull City: Magpies Strong Favourites as Unbeaten Hull Arrive at St. James' Park

Bookmakers have delivered an emphatic verdict on Saturday afternoon's Gameweek 5 meeting at St. James' Park: Newcastle United are favourites at 1.58 — a price that works out to a bookmaker-derived implied probability of 60%.

According to bookmaker odds via API Football, recorded on 16 September, the full market for this 2026-27 fixture reads:

• Newcastle win: 1.58 (60% implied)
• Draw: 4.33 (22% implied)
• Hull City win: 5.16 (18% implied)

Taken together, the draw and an away win give Hull a 40% bookmaker-derived probability of avoiding defeat — and across the ten Gameweek 5 fixtures, only one travelling side carries a lower implied probability of winning than the Tigers' 18%.

The table tells a different story

Hull arrive fourth with eight points from an unbeaten four-match start: two wins, two draws, five goals scored and just two conceded. According to the Premier League table, only leaders Arsenal have conceded fewer, only the top two have more points, and Hull are one of just seven unbeaten sides in the division — arriving on the back of two straight wins.

Newcastle, by contrast, sit 12th with five points from four games, per the same table: one win, two draws and a defeat, seven goals scored, eight conceded and a goal difference of -1. Their form line reads LDWD, with a draw last time out.

The mismatch is striking — and, on the market data, unique. Of the ten fixtures priced for Gameweek 5, this is the only one in which the bookmakers' favourite sits below its opponent in the table.

Open hosts, watertight visitors

Hull's numbers point to a controlled side: five goals for, two against. Newcastle's profile is more open at both ends — according to the Premier League table, only four sides have outscored their seven goals, yet only four have conceded more than their eight. Something here has to give: any Hull result extends the unbeaten start, while a Newcastle win ends it.

FanTribe points on offer

FanTribe's prediction data shows the points on offer are skewed to match the market. A correctly tipped Newcastle win is worth 32 points, the draw 87 and a Hull victory 103 — the largest single reward in this fixture, reserved for those backing the side the market rates least likely to take three points. The draw, at 87 points, sits in between, close to triple the reward for backing the favourites.

What three points are worth

Victory would lift Hull to 11 points; a Newcastle win would take the Magpies level with the Tigers' current tally of eight. For a fixture the market frames as a home win, the table frames it very differently — eight places, in fact, in the visitors' favour.