Tottenham vs Everton: Fans Back Everton as Bookmakers Make Spurs Favourites

Tottenham Hotspur host Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday 12 September (5.30pm BST), and few fixtures in Gameweek 4 arrive with a wider gulf between the market's assessment and the crowd's. The visitors travel unbeaten and the hosts are winless — yet it is Tottenham the bookmakers rate.

The market's verdict

The bookmakers make Tottenham favourites at 1.98, a bookmaker-derived probability of 48% — a notable show of faith in a side sitting 18th in the table. Everton are priced at 3.72 (25% implied) and the draw at 3.52 (27% implied). FanTribe's points on offer follow the market's hierarchy:

• Tottenham win — 1.98 (48% implied), 40 points
• Draw — 3.52 (27% implied), 70 points
• Everton win — 3.72 (25% implied), 74 points

Implied probabilities are derived from bookmaker odds rather than any measure of certainty.

Form: opposite starts

According to the Premier League table, the contrast through three gameweeks is stark. Tottenham are 18th with a single point — no wins, one draw, two defeats, no goals scored and five conceded — and they head into the weekend on the back of two straight losses. They are one of just three sides yet to score, alongside Aston Villa and Coventry City.

Everton are eighth and unbeaten. A DDW return has them on five points — level with Liverpool and Newcastle United, among others — with five goals scored and just three conceded. They won last time out.

Head-to-head

Recent history favours the hosts. Tottenham won the last two meetings between the clubs — 1-0 at home and 3-0 away — scoring four goals and conceding none across the pair.

Fans vs the market

FanTribe's prediction data shows the crowd leaning the other way. Every prediction logged so far for this fixture backs Everton, a 100% away lean against a market that makes Tottenham favourites, and the resulting 75-point disagreement gap is the widest of any Gameweek 4 fixture.

It is part of a broader pattern, too: across the eight fixtures with predictions logged, fans have sided against the market favourite on five occasions. None of those splits, though — not even Manchester United vs Manchester City (69) or Leeds United vs Newcastle United (66) — runs as deep as this one.

The calculation

An unbeaten Everton, a head-to-head record in Tottenham's favour and a market that still respects home advantage make this one of the gameweek's most intriguing puzzles. On FanTribe, the rewards are weighted accordingly: 74 points for an away win, 70 for a draw and 40 for the hosts.