Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City: Haaland wins it for ten-man City

Erling Haaland's 60th-minute goal gave Manchester City a 1-0 victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Sunday, with the visitors overcoming Phil Foden's first-half red card to take all three points in Gameweek 4 of the Premier League season.

How the match was won

• 23' — Red card, Phil Foden (Manchester City): the visitors were reduced to ten men with more than an hour of the contest still to play.
• 60' — Goal, Erling Haaland (Manchester City): the game's only strike, arriving on the hour.

City absorbed the setback of playing a man short from the 23rd minute onwards and found the decisive moment themselves through Haaland. United, despite their numerical advantage, could not muster an equaliser and were held scoreless in front of their own supporters.

The head-to-head record between these sides had shown each of the previous two meetings going the way of the home team — a 2-0 United win and a 3-0 City victory — so an away success here bucked that pattern.

No derby upset

There was no shock at Old Trafford, though. According to bookmaker odds, City went into the match as favourites at 2.2, a bookmaker-derived implied probability of 43%, ahead of the draw at 3.75 (26%) and United at 3.1 (31%). FanTribe's results data does not flag this as an upset — the market favourite simply delivered.

That made the derby an exception in a remarkable Gameweek 4, in which six upsets occurred, per FanTribe's results data. Among them: Chelsea were held at home by Hull City, Liverpool dropped points at home to Fulham, and Ipswich Town won at Crystal Palace.

What it means for the table

According to the Premier League table, City maintain a perfect start: four wins from four, 12 points, eight goals scored and only two conceded. They sit second, level on points with leaders Arsenal, who edge the summit on goal difference. United sit 13th with four points from as many matches — one win, one draw and two defeats — with seven goals scored and seven conceded.

The community called it wrong

FanTribe's prediction data for this fixture tells its own story. Just two predictions were logged, splitting evenly between a United win and a draw — not a single member backed City, and the community finished with zero correct calls on the derby.

The fan-versus-market comparison had registered a 43-point disagreement gap, with the bookmakers' away favourite finding no takers in the community. The away outcome carried 44 points on offer — reward that went unclaimed, because nobody had picked it.

Gameweek 4 concludes on Monday evening, when Leeds United host Newcastle United at Elland Road. According to bookmaker odds, Leeds are the favourites at 2.3, a bookmaker-derived implied probability of 41%.