Gameweek 1 Roundup: Three Upsets as Manchester City and Arsenal Set the Pace

Gameweek 1 of the 2026-27 Premier League season is in the books, and it was a round that favoured the hosts — up to a point. Seven of the ten fixtures finished in home wins, but the three results that broke the pattern were all flagged as upsets, and each carried a bookmaker-derived probability of 30% or less.

The results in full

• Arsenal 3-0 Coventry City
• Hull City 2-0 Manchester United
• Ipswich Town 2-1 Sunderland
• Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace
• Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United
• Brentford 3-0 Tottenham Hotspur
• Manchester City 2-1 AFC Bournemouth
• Brighton & Hove Albion 4-0 Aston Villa
• Newcastle United 2-2 Liverpool
• Fulham 2-3 Chelsea

Thirty goals across ten matches worked out at exactly three per game. The five-goal contest between Fulham and Chelsea was the round's highest-scoring fixture, while Brighton & Hove Albion's 4-0 win over Aston Villa was its most one-sided. There was routine business elsewhere: Arsenal beat Coventry City 3-0, Everton overcame Crystal Palace 2-0, Ipswich Town edged past Sunderland, Manchester City saw off AFC Bournemouth 2-1, and Brentford beat a Tottenham Hotspur side now on two straight defeats.

The three upsets

The surprises came at the City Ground, St James' Park and Craven Cottage.

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United. The bookmakers' odds implied just a 30% chance of an away win, and Leeds took the points regardless. According to the Premier League table, Forest sit 16th and are still searching for a first win, while Leeds are ninth on five points.

Newcastle United 2-2 Liverpool. A draw on Tyneside carried a bookmaker-derived probability of only 28% — the least likely confirmed outcome of the entire gameweek. The shared spoils leave Liverpool sixth and Newcastle seventh, both on five points.

Fulham 2-3 Chelsea. Chelsea's win in the round's most entertaining match came against an identical implied probability of 30%. Fulham, by contrast, are 19th and still without a point.

One scoreline that looks like an upset but was not flagged as one: Hull City 2-0 Manchester United. The bookmakers' odds put a 42% probability on the home win — the same figure attached to every other home victory this round — so by the market's measure it was no shock, however it may have felt.

What the table says

According to the Premier League table, Manchester City and Arsenal set the pace on nine points apiece. Both have a +5 goal difference; City hold first place having scored seven goals to Arsenal's six. Unbeaten Hull City sit third on seven points, and their record of two wins and a draw without conceding is the standout feature of the early table. Chelsea are fourth on six, with Brentford, Liverpool, Newcastle, Everton and Leeds bunched together on five.

Brighton's thrashing of Villa lifts them to tenth, ahead of Manchester United and Sunderland on goal difference, with Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town on three points and AFC Bournemouth and Forest on two. Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur occupy 17th and 18th on a point apiece, while Fulham and Coventry City complete the table without a point between them.

The prediction angle

Rounds like this are where prediction games are won. The seven home wins each carried a 42% implied probability according to the bookmakers' odds, but the three upsets demanded that backers go against probabilities of 30% or lower. Calling all three — Leeds away, the draw at St James' Park and Chelsea at Craven Cottage — would have taken some nerve, and however the FanTribe community fared on those calls, they were the results that shaped the round.

Three upsets in ten matches is a healthy strike rate for unpredictability. If the rest of the season follows suit, the prediction leaderboards are in for plenty of swings, and Gameweek 1 has already shown where the value hides: in the outcomes the odds least expect.