Gameweek 2 roundup: seven upsets in ten as Manchester City and Arsenal set the pace

Seven upsets in ten: the round the market got wrong

Gameweek 2 of the 2026-27 Premier League season belonged to the underdogs. Seven of the ten fixtures defied the bookmakers' odds, and no outcome across the entire round carried an implied probability higher than 42 per cent. It was the kind of weekend that punished the cautious and rewarded the bold — and it left its mark on the table.

The away wins did most of the damage. Newcastle United won 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal edged Aston Villa 1-0, Hull City left Coventry City with a 1-0 victory and Manchester City hammered Crystal Palace 4-1 — each of those away results carried a bookmaker-derived probability of just 30 per cent. Even City's emphatic win counted among the round's upsets by the market's measure.

The draws were just as unkind to the favourites:

• Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest, a result priced at a 28 per cent implied probability
• AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Everton, also at 28 per cent
• Leeds United 1-1 Brentford, again at 28 per cent

Only three results went the way the market expected, and even those were tight calls at 42 per cent. Chelsea edged Brighton & Hove Albion 4-3 and Manchester United beat Ipswich Town 5-2 in the round's two seven-goal thrillers, while Sunderland saw off Fulham 1-0.

How the table looks now

According to the Premier League table, Manchester City and Arsenal are the only sides with perfect records — nine points apiece from three wins out of three. City lead on goals scored, seven to Arsenal's six, with both clubs on a +5 goal difference and riding three straight wins.

The surprise package sits third. Hull City are unbeaten on seven points with two wins and a draw, and the table shows they are yet to concede a single goal — no side in the division has conceded fewer. Chelsea complete the top four on six points, with eight goals scored and seven conceded in three games.

The middle of the table is congested. Brentford, Liverpool, Newcastle, Everton and Leeds United all sit on five points, with the table's form data showing Liverpool on two straight draws. Brighton, Manchester United and Sunderland are a point further back on four, with Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town on three and AFC Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest on two.

At the bottom, the table makes grim reading for some storied clubs. Tottenham Hotspur are 18th with a solitary point and, according to the table, are yet to score. Aston Villa, one place above them, are also without a goal. Fulham and Coventry City prop up the division on zero points after three straight defeats apiece, and Coventry have yet to find the net.

A brutal test for predictors

Rounds like this are why prediction games exist. With seven of the ten results counted as upsets, the safe picks failed more often than they landed, while the boldest calls on the board — Forest leaving Liverpool with a point, Newcastle winning at Spurs, Arsenal grinding out a result at Villa — all arrived at implied probabilities of 30 per cent or lower.

For the FanTribe community, this was the kind of gameweek that separates the brave from the herd. How did your Gameweek 2 predictions hold up? Study this round closely before calling Gameweek 3 — Hull City in third, Spurs in the bottom three and away wins everywhere suggest the form book deserves a sceptical eye.