Gameweek 5 market watch: Hull City third in the table, 5.8 at Newcastle

All ten Gameweek 5 fixtures carry prices in the latest bookmaker data (via api_football, recorded on Sunday evening), and the bookmaker-derived probabilities range from Manchester City's 73% at home to Sunderland's 10% away.

Hull's table-versus-market gap

According to the Premier League table, Hull City sit third — unbeaten, with two wins and two draws from four. The market is far less convinced. Hull are 5.8 outsiders at Newcastle, a bookmaker-derived probability of 16%, while Newcastle, tenth with five points from three games, are 1.5 favourites at 63% implied.

FanTribe's points on offer follow the market's scepticism: a Hull win at St James' Park is worth 116 points, the second-largest haul of the gameweek, against 30 for a Newcastle win and 89 for the draw.

The 190-point question at the Etihad

The biggest single points figure of the round sits on Sunderland's trip to Manchester City. City are the shortest price of Gameweek 5 at 1.29 — 73% implied, worth 26 points — while Sunderland travel at 9.5 (10% implied), and a Sunderland win carries 190 points. Even the draw pays 110.

Brighton's goals, Arsenal's price

Brighton & Hove Albion are fourth and, with 13 goals, the division's top scorers according to the table — yet they carry the longest home price of the round, 4.6 (21% implied), for the visit of leaders Arsenal, who have four wins from four. FanTribe offers 92 points for a Brighton win; Arsenal's win is rated at 1.73 (54% implied) and worth 35 points.

Winless in north London

According to the standings, Tottenham Hotspur are 17th — winless and scoreless in four — while Aston Villa are 19th with one point and one goal. The market still separates them: Spurs are 1.95 favourites (48% implied, 39 points), with a Villa win at 3.7 (26% implied) worth 74 points.

The rest of the card

Chelsea are 2.21 favourites (43% implied) at unbeaten Brentford, whose home win is priced at 2.9 (32% implied, 58 points). Liverpool are 2.1 (45% implied) at Bournemouth and Manchester United 2.0 (47% implied) at Fulham, while Everton (1.75, 54% implied), Nottingham Forest (1.71, 55% implied) and Leeds United (2.0, 47% implied) head the home prices against Ipswich Town, Coventry City and Crystal Palace respectively. Coventry, without a point or a goal, are 4.85 (20% implied) at the City Ground with 97 points on offer.

Bookmaker-derived probabilities are a snapshot of the market, not a forecast — and, as Hull's start shows, the table is currently telling a rather different story.