Tottenham favourites for Villa clash despite winless start

• Fixture: Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
• Competition: Premier League, Gameweek 5 (2026-27 season)
• Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
• Date: Saturday 19 September

The market verdict

Bookmakers make Tottenham Hotspur the firm favourites for this one. According to odds data from API-Football recorded on 16 September, a home win is priced at 2 — a bookmaker-derived implied probability of 48% — with the draw at 3.6 and an Aston Villa victory at 3.65, both carrying a 26% implied probability.

Those prices make Spurs one of six home favourites across the ten priced fixtures on the Gameweek 5 card.

FanTribe's prediction game mirrors the market's shape: 40 points are on offer for correctly calling a Tottenham win, with 72 available for the draw and 73 for backing Villa.

Two winless teams, one goal between them

According to the Premier League table, this is a meeting of two of the division's bottom four — and neither has won a game yet.

Tottenham sit 17th with two points from four matches, their form line reading two draws followed by two straight defeats. The starkest statistic of their season so far is in attack: four games, zero goals scored, five conceded.

Aston Villa's return is even leaner. The visitors are 19th with a single point, one goal scored and seven conceded, and they arrive in north London also on the back of two straight losses.

Between them, these sides have managed one goal in eight league outings. The one crumb of comfort on offer: whichever team comes out on top will bank a first victory of the campaign.

Head-to-head: away-day comfort

The recent record between these clubs is perfectly balanced — and curiously lopsided towards the travelling side.

Their last two meetings have produced a win apiece and three goals each, with both fixtures finishing 2-1 to the away team. Villa have won 2-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in that run, while Spurs have claimed a 2-1 victory of their own on Villa's patch.

What to watch

• The drought: neither side has scored more than once this season, so the opening goal could carry unusual weight.
• Momentum: both teams arrive on two-match losing runs, per the Premier League table.
• Market versus table: Spurs are clear favourites despite sitting 17th, with home advantage clearly a factor in the pricing.

With a combined one goal from eight matches, this fixture may turn on a single moment. The market says Tottenham; the table says these two are closer than the prices suggest.