Gameweek 4 Roundup: Six Upsets, No Home Wins and Hull City Third

No home comforts in Gameweek 4

Gameweek 4 of the 2026-27 Premier League season was one for the travellers. Of the eight results processed at the time of writing, not a single home side won: four matches finished level and four were settled by the visitors. Six of those results were upsets by the bookmakers' measure, making for a chaotic weekend.

The upsets

• Chelsea 2-2 Hull City AFC — the draw carried a bookmaker-derived probability of just 14%
• Liverpool 0-0 Fulham — the draw was rated at a 20% implied probability
• Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich Town — Ipswich's away win was priced at a 24% implied probability
• Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 Everton — the draw carried a 26% implied probability
• AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford — the draw was rated at 27%
• Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest — Forest's away win carried a 29% implied probability

The only results that went to form were both away wins: Arsenal won 2-0 at Sunderland, a result with a 60% bookmaker-derived probability, and Brighton & Hove Albion beat Coventry City 5-0 at a 50% implied probability.

The state of the table

According to the Premier League table, Arsenal lead the way with a perfect 12 points from four games, eight goals scored and just one conceded. Manchester City are second on nine points from only three matches, while Hull City are the early-season surprise in third — unbeaten with two wins and two draws from four after their point at Chelsea. Chelsea sit fourth on seven.

Liverpool, held by Fulham, are sixth on six points with three draws from four. Further down, the numbers are stark. Tottenham Hotspur are 17th with two points and, according to the Premier League table, have yet to score in four matches — no goals for, five against. Aston Villa are 19th on a single point, and Coventry City prop up the division with no points and no goals from three games.

How the FanTribe community fared

It was a difficult gameweek for FanTribe predictors, albeit from a small pool, with most fixtures attracting only one or two predictions. The community agreed with the bookmakers' favourite on four of the ten fixtures and disagreed on six, including two where predictions were split with no overall fan favourite.

Of the eight completed fixtures, the fans' pick landed only twice: Sunderland vs Arsenal and Coventry City vs Brighton, both games in which the community unanimously backed the away side alongside the market, with 100% of predictions in each. On all six upsets, the fans' pick missed along with the bookmakers'.

The boldest contrarian call came at Stamford Bridge. FanTribe's biggest fan-versus-market disagreement of the gameweek — a gap of 93 — saw the sole predictor back Hull to win while the market made Chelsea favourites. The 2-2 draw meant neither side of that argument landed. At Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town, the lone predictor called a draw, only for the away win priced at a 24% implied probability to arrive instead.

Still to come

The Manchester derby at Old Trafford had not been processed in our results data at the time of writing. Bookmaker odds made Manchester City favourites at 2.2, a 43% bookmaker-derived probability, with FanTribe offering 62 points for a Manchester United win, 75 for the draw and 44 for a City victory. FanTribe's prediction data shows the community split 50-50 between a United win and a draw, with no backers for City.

Leeds United vs Newcastle United rounds off the gameweek at Elland Road on Monday evening. Bookmakers make Leeds favourites at 2.31, a 41% implied probability, and FanTribe has 46 points on offer for a home win, 71 for the draw and 60 for Newcastle. The community is split straight down the middle: 50% for Leeds, 50% for Newcastle.